As the election draws close, there has been a drastic increase in violence, loss of lives, and property in Anambra State. From the destruction of the INEC state office in May where three people died, non-sensitive election materials destroyed, seven vehicles, and 50 generating sets burnt, to several reports of killings and attacks on properties of individuals.
Calls from certain groups encouraging people to boycott the elections have left uncertainty in the air. The Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, while addressing the press after the Federal Executive Council meeting on Thursday, stated that no possibility is ruled out, citing the security breaches and instances of the breakdown of law and order as references that could require the declaration of a state of emergency in the state.

State of emergency: The way to go?
A state of emergency is a government declaration, an express directive by the executive to handle a difficult situation such as a natural disaster, violence, pandemic, civic unrest or insecurity that threatens the country. It brings to a halt the normal functioning of the government. When triggered by violence and insecurity, it could lead to a takeover by the military. A state of emergency grants special powers to the government to restrict press freedom, evacuation of people from their homes, searching of homes and private places without a warrant, and confiscation of properties among other things. It also leads to curfews and restrictions on the economic, civil, and political rights of the citizens as soldiers take to the streets, empowered by law to make arrests, and detain suspects.
There is a certain fear that comes with having the army walk the streets. Long after normalcy returns, people will still be wary of moving, talk less of going to join queues to vote. A state of emergency can also be wielded by the government as seen in the past to postpone elections or neutralize opponents. It begs the question, is it the right call to be made barely a month to the Anambra elections?
Some might argue that the situation in Anambra hasn’t yet gotten to the point where a state of emergency should be declared. So far, going by the reports, 15 have died in political killings, which while unfortunate isn’t beyond what the Police can manage. A state of emergency might be perceived as a plot by the central government to postpone the election or better still, be a tool to tilt the scales in the favor of the ruling party.
The IPOB Factor
Though the group has been proscribed and labeled a terrorist organization by the federal government, their influence is still strongly felt in the South East. For the past few months, there has been a sit-at-home order in the southeast every Monday in solidarity with their detained leader, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu. This instruction has been strictly obeyed across the eastern states. And in cases where the rules have been flouted, it has been a guerilla-like punishment as footage has surfaced online where vehicles and properties of defaulters have been set ablaze.
It is also known that this group has dissociated itself from anything that has to do with the central government as it also declared the 1st of October, Nigeria’s Independence day a sit at home. There have always been calls by this group for election boycott in the east, precisely Anambra state. Reports reveal that during the 2017 elections the group also encouraged people to boycott the election. Going by their agenda for secession, it shouldn’t be any different now.
Boycotting: A Solution or Complication?
Seeing the enormous influence the group holds in the east, should they call for a boycott, there is a good chance people stay in their homes due to fear of reprisals. The group’s reason for this boycott is oppression and marginalization by the current regime. But is boycotting the way to get what they want?
An election boycott can be peaceful and can also be a violence trigger. In Jamaica in 1983, the opposition leader, Michael Manley, instructed that the boycott be peaceful, stating that they seek no confrontation. Whereas in Ivory Coast in 1995, Laurent Gbagbo, the opposition leader at the time was quoted as saying that the opposition has given orders for “maximum disruption”.
If the elections fail to hold either due to a violent boycott or any other reason, the present government will stay on for at least six months according to section 180(3) of the Nigerian constitution. This means that it will not be a lasting solution since the incumbent governor is not their choice.
Over the years, history has shown that it is almost impossible to achieve a total boycott. And oftentimes, the opposition party that chooses the boycott loses outrightly in terms of representation. It happened in Egypt in 1990, Bangladesh in 1996, Azerbaijan in 1998, and 2000. In the last general election in 2019, where about seven million voters registered from the east and only three million voted. If they had all come out to vote, might it have made the difference? Maybe.
But more importantly, a call for a boycott shows that there is a lack of faith in the electoral process or democracy as it is defined.
INEC’s Preparedness
In a conversation with Situation Room Nigeria, the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) for Anambra state, Dr. Nkwachukwu Orji confirmed there are 2,525,471 registered voters, 112 new polling units have been added bringing the total to 5,720, and 326 wards in the 21 LGAs.
Dr. Nwachukwu further elaborated that recruitment for ad-hoc staff is ongoing and the agency looks to employ 26,000 people. Accreditation of the press is ongoing and the decentralized ad-hoc staff will be trained in the third week of October. He confirmed the final list of 18 candidates that will contest the election come November 6, 2021.
He stated that non-sensitive materials destroyed during the May attack will be restocked from the southeast zonal store in Imo state.
To Be or Not to Be?
With INEC’s level of preparedness, the level of insecurity in the state, and the looming effect of external groups, will a state of emergency be declared? Will elections hold as scheduled? Or will the voters show apathy by boycotting the election if it eventually holds? Whatever the case might be, wherever the pendulum swings, time will ultimately tell.


